avoid promoting division, modulo and indexing operations that could fail
For division, `x / y` will still be promoted if `y` is a non-zero integer literal; however, `1/(1+1)` will not be promoted any more.
While at it, also see if we can reject promoting floating-point arithmetic (which are [complicated](https://github.com/rust-lang/unsafe-code-guidelines/issues/237) so maybe we should not promote them).
This will need a crater run to see if there's code out there that relies on these things being promoted.
If we can land this, promoteds in `fn`/`const fn` cannot fail to evaluate any more, which should let us do some simplifications in codegen/Miri!
Cc https://github.com/rust-lang/rfcs/pull/3027
Fixes https://github.com/rust-lang/rust/issues/61821
r? `@oli-obk`
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